There is an old rock song from the early 90s by a group named ‘The Clash’ that goes: ‘should I stay or should I go’, ‘If I go there will be trouble’, ‘If I stay it will be double’. Essentially written with no political intent, by a heavily drugged rock band, the song plays just perfectly to our exciting predicament. Who knew…
Everyone is speculating about president Kagame’s leaving of power. His deliberate ambiguity on the matter has done just the fortunes of pundits.
Taking his time, entertaining the suspense, leaving imperceptible hints here and there; it’s breathtaking! Every bar, every conversation, both in Rwanda and on the continent, is slowly zeroing in on one and one question only: what’s Paul Kagame’s move, come 2017?
Well that’s a million dollar question, and I wish I had the answer; I don’t. But I have a story…
In my opinion, he has every reason to keep everyone guessing the longest time possible. Why? Because he doesn’t want to be a lame duck! If he revealed his position today; every decision he makes thereafter, every appointment, foreign policy move, every comment, will be interpreted against that D-day; anything else becomes almost irrelevant; in fact speculations have started already, especially with the recent change of prime ministers. It is like being in a divorce process, in Rwanda, before the new law; two years seem like forever?!
Investors will hold on a little longer to their investments to see in which directions the wind blows; enemies will start plotting to strike once he goes, new marriage plans might be put on hold, couples’ family planning will have to factor that in: ‘Ok darling if I make you pregnant now, our baby will be two then. What if…’ its stressful. The country might just go in hibernation mode for the next two years.
That was the push factor. Now, the pull factor is that, the procrastination is enabling him to see who is a sycophant, who is an opportunist, who is truly loyal, who is patriotic; etc. This must be fun for him: looking at all party cadres debating his future and the future of the country – which happen to be forever entangled, and waiting until last minute to reveal his play – or already to a few confidants – what do I know…
Oh I miss the Catholic Church and when we all went for penitence.
– PK: ‘Forgive me father for I have sinned.’
– Padre: ‘My son, God is not interested in what you did. but in what you plan to do in 2017. Tell me and I shall ask God to forgive you…
If it was in Habyarimana days, we’d ask the church; I hear his wife had a personal chapel and priest in their house, to whom they frequently repented
The other day they miraculously retrieved President Paul’s baptism card and gave it to him, cynically reminding him of his Catholicism – you know, of the time when our beloved King Rwabugiri was exiled and his son forced to convert to Catholicism and ‘sell’ our country to Christ the King… I suspect that is why Prez is not keen to honoring the third sacraments of ‘Penance and Reconciliation’ – I am digressing…
Anyway, why should he come clean? That would be like forcing a poker player to reveal his hand before the stakes are all in – just because that is the honest or catholic thing to do…
Will he go, will he not? he should go or he shouldn’t. When asked, his answer has ‘evolved’ from ‘Oh, mostdef!’, to: ‘here is the thing: its complicated…’
Even I, who was hopeful that he would go by the end of his term, am getting anxious as 2017 closes in. I am like; what will happen to us?
Here are my predictions: I know many of you want me to cut to the chase, but I think it is important that everyone understands why I make these predictions in the end. So I too, am going to lead you on for another paragraph or two…
…Commercial break…
And we are back: What is the challenge at hand? Relentless economic growth and human development amidst an uncertain economic epoch and a tense aid framework: How much bullshit can we take; how much compromise and for how long, to remain afloat with aid money and in the good books of the dreadful international community? looming regional security threats: FDLR, hostile neighboring forces, and perhaps the most difficult of all: internal intrigues: how do you keep everyone in line, focused and get them to declare their wealth every year?
With that in mind, I am visualizing that glorious night when he will go on national television just after the evening news. having all been convened, we’ll be watching, the world will hold its breath, as he goes: ‘In spite of overwhelming public demand, I have decided to step down! Because the Rwandan constitution says so! I believe that the Rwandan constitution supersede us all, and we all should abide by it!’
That’s the part where he’ll go biblical on us: quoting John:14,15: ‘But fear not! For I shall find you a helper, who shall stay with you, as I watch upon y’all from my Senate seat, next to Tito, my old friend!’ – I couldn’t resist; Senator Tito’s white goatee has something godlike! And there is his role as head of discipline both in the party and in the Senate…
By that gesture, he will instantly join the gods – and here I am not talking about Tito. His name will be inscribed on a monument atop Rwanda’s Karisimbi Mountain. He will be the way, the truth and the power. No one shall accede to senior positions, but through him – at least for the seven years of the new guy’s first term; I am not being gender-biased; I think the next president is a man. (Hint 1?)
Now, the point that Rwandans seem to miss, is that people like Kagame come around every half a century, if ever. If we wait for another Kagame to replace Kagame, we will wait for a long time…
There were two on this continent; him and Meles Zenawi. Now, Meles just died of natural cause. While Kagame looks fit and plays tennis, we still have to start imagining scenarios beyond him.
But let’s take a look at the profile we need:
– One that has the pan-African charisma of Sankara;
– The political stratagem of Machiavelli;
– The intelligence of Putin;
– The heroism of Lumumba;
And the ruthlessness of Meles Zenawi.
So I look around for another Kagame, I keep looking, but I have faith…
– to be continued
Posted 24th October 2014