It is impossible for #BobiWine to be president of Uganda. I like him, and I think it may be time for change in Uganda. But other than musical entertainment, I think he never stood a chance and I wouldn’t wish him on my 46 million neighbors and most youthful people in the world.
Just imagine for a second what a #BobiWine victory would look like: in Uganda. Who would declare it, who would organize his swearing-in, who would guard him and most importantly, what would he do with it? What does he know about leadership?
On Ideas and Representation:
Other than his spouse, I haven’t seen any well read, dignified, high profile person speaking on his behalf – not that it is common in Ugandan politics – and other than emotional soundbites I haven’t seen them make any sound, coherent political thoughts.
Who is #BobiWine’s team? Former music producers? Kampala DJs? City dealers? Brokers? Taxi drivers? Street boys? Who will form his government? Who will fund his government? Who will be his advisors?
What does #BobiWine stand for? Typically every opposition candidate wants to lower taxes and deliver full employment, free electricity, water, education, healthcare, housing; Basically they want to deliver paradise on earth and all for free. This is a red flag..
That’s the definition of a candidate who doesn’t know what they are talking about. A good candidate is one who has a sober, measured, hinterland understanding of one’s country. One who is involved and has advanced real ideas and taken real action in solving real problems. A good candidate is one with a strong network of friends, colleagues, cohort, who can support one’s ideas and give them fresh ones.
On Education and Background:
It is ignorant to compare young Museveni wt #BobiWine. Museveni frequented the laboratory of Marxist revolution that was the University of Dar at the time, studied Political Science and frequented Nyerere, Mugabe, Samora Machel and received military training.
What of #BobiWine?
He studied Music and Drama at Makerere, a University that is a shadow of what is used to be, where one can buy marks and plagiarize essays. He frequented marijuana dealers and club owners of Kampala…
On Legitimacy and Recognition:
Humble beginnings aren’t the problem, but #BobiWine is no George Weah. Weah is an internal star with an MBA from a decent university, presiding over 5 million people at the Atlantic Ocean, not 46 million landlocked chaps bordering South Sudan and DRC.
#BobiWine is exactly “Sweet Micky”. Michel Martelly was recent former president of Haiti. But the point above applies. Enjoy Sweet Micky’s Zouk here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEPDLRCqtZI
Of the will power of #BobiWine supporters:
Baganda are like Congolese, unlike Banyarwanda and Sudanese they are inherently peaceful. And Unlike Arabs, they have no culture of martyrdom. Since Kizito, Lwanga and them, I do not expect a Muganda to self-immolate to prove a point.
There are two groups of fighters in Uganda, who have been fighting one another to lead Uganda. Precisely those bordering South Sudan in the North and bordering Rwanda in the West. Museveni is from the West and has made sure the North remains backward and weak to ever challenge him.
For #BobiWine to ever pose a threat to Museveni, his supporters must be ready to die for him, not as victims but as fighters and therefore be incorruptible: attributes that his supporters typically lack. So no, Whenever Museveni leaves power, it is not going to be thanks to #BobiWine.
Everyone can fight a war. Everyone can even win a war. But we all know who took over after the Arab spring, after Mugabe, Bashir and Dos Santos? Octogenarian politicians and veteran army generals, the jury is still out on whether the people are better off after the old dictators..
Now, How can M7 leave power?
Excluding an act of God, Museveni can leave power in two ways:
– By Making Mugabe’s mistake
The third option of his family, army or party leaders asking him to leave is also to be excluded because there are no such people in the NRM (I’ll come back to this point later)
1. Willingly: By deciding that his time is up and surprising everyone one evening on television and appointing a successor with immediate effects;
2. By making the Mugabe mistake: The Mugabe mistake consists of picking a successor prematurely..
Indeed, under particular duress, only known to married men, Mugabe was forced to designate his wife as his successor before he was ready to resign. As a result, all other ‘presidential expectants’ were disillusioned and plotted a coup. M7 knows this and keeps his veterans, his wife, son, in-laws, all in the vibe, guessing..
On the Party and Army option:
Museveni has used patronage as a means of leadership, in other words every senior leader in NRM and in the UPDF is guilty by association. No one, as a result, holds a moral authority – nor the youth to ask the old man to leave.
What of the young generals?
Young generals do not have the ‘liberators’ prestige of their parents, nor has the Ugandan army registered a significant victory since 1986, so none of them is famous in the army. The only young general with a well trained, well equipped Army -within the army-is Museveni’s Son!